sidravitale

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/7/13/2332524/-JD-Vance-wants-more-babies-Americans-want-help-raising-them?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=

Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.

Global birth rates are falling, and many on the right want you to get out there and breed for the good of the U.S. of A. 

“Let me say very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America,” Vice President JD Vance said at an anti-abortion rally in January. 

But new polling finds that most Americans do not share his concern about declining birth rates. What they are concerned about, though, may be one of the reasons for lower birth rates: the budget-busting price of becoming a parent and raising a kid. And they largely disagree with Vance’s idea of how to fix it.

Just 28% of Americans say declining birth rates are a major problem, according to a new survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Meanwhile, 44% say it’s a minor problem, and 27% consider it no problem at all.

And even fewer Americans are fans of Vance’s favorite subject: Just 12% think it should be a high priority for the government to encourage people to have more kids.

Vance may couch his birthing obsession in language about replacement-level birth rates, but on closer inspection, it’s clear their concerns derive from reactionary misogyny, a reflexive fear and hatred of women choosing to have fewer kids—and of people other than stay-at-home moms raising those kids.

“A dramatic expansion of child care is a bad deal for American parents,” Vance wrote in a 2021 Wall Street Journal op-ed. But since more than 4 in 5 stay-at-home parents are women, it’s not hard to work out that what conservatives actually want is fewer women working. They’d rather them remain economically dependent on men. After all, this is the same guy who wants to end no-fault divorce and thinks women should stick it out in “violent” marriages.

Vance also decried the idea of non-family-based child care, complaining to Tucker Carlson in 2021 that some Americans “want strangers to raise their kids.” 

But again, this creep is just out of touch. The same poll finds that the vast majority of Americans (76%) see the cost of child care as a major problem, and another 18% see it as a minor problem. Only 5% don’t see it as a problem.

The national average price to have an infant in a child care center is over $13,000 a year, according to data from Child Care Aware of America, a national organization that advocates for affordable child care. The median household income in 2023 was $80,610, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, meaning that child care accounts for over 16% of the typical family’s budget—an amount rivaled only by housing, food, and health insurance costs. 

And what if that family has two kids? Or three? Or what if there’s only one parent? Some people simply can’t afford to have a kid, even if they want one.

Of course, many Democrats are running on making child care more affordable—or, if you’re New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, free. That is one of Mamdani’s main campaign planks, which probably boosted him to his shock victory in the local Democratic primary last month. In 2024, 67% of Americans supported the idea of the government providing funding for child care, according to YouGov. 

Other reasons for why some Americans are opting out of parenthood are the costs and dangers of getting pregnant in the first place. The AP-NORC poll finds that 41% of Americans say the steep price of fertility treatments as a major problem, and another 34% think it’s a minor problem. Furthermore, 39% see the risks of pregnancy and childbirth as a major problem, and 43% see it as a minor problem. 

And unfortunately, the latter problem is getting much worse under Republican leadership. States with more abortion restrictions face higher rates of mothers dying during pregnancy and in the year following childbirth. 

After all, if having a kid costs you your life, who can afford that?

Any updates?

• Following the deadly floods in Central Texas, YouGov finds that roughly 1 in 5 Americans (18%) have had to evacuate their homes due to floods, tornados, and other extreme weather at least once in their lives. In the South, that number climbs to 1 in 4 (26%), likely due to the added threat of hurricanes.

• Relishing its own gleeful cruelty, the Trump administration has nicknamed an immigrant detention center “Alligator Alcatraz” since it’s located in the Florida Everglades. But yet again, the administration is overestimating the blood-thirstiness of the average American: Only 1 in 3 support the opening of this detention center, according to YouGov. Meanwhile, 48% oppose it, and 18% aren’t sure.

• American pride is falling, with some polls finding it at a new low—and especially low among Democrats and independents. But not only is there a partisan gap on American pride, there was also one on watching Fourth of July fireworks. YouGov finds that 56% of Republicans watched the fireworks this year, while 55% of Democrats and 54% of independents did not. 

• The Trump administration is moving to revoke U.S. citizenship for those who have committed crimes, and he’s even flirting with the idea of deporting Mamdani, a U.S. citizen who was born in Uganda. However, these threats are vastly unpopular, with 70% of likely voters thinking the president shouldn’t have the power to revoke citizenship from immigrants, according to Data for Progress. Fifty-five percent even say the government shouldn’t be able to deport naturalized citizens who have committed serious crimes.

• The Internal Revenue Services will now allow churches to endorse political candidates without risking their tax-exempt status, further eroding the boundary between church and state. However, just 20% of Americans support the idea of churches making endorsements, according to 2023 data recently released by the Public Religion Research Institute. Not even a majority of people who believe in Christian nationalism (45%) support churches getting into the endorsement game.

Vibe check

Extreme heat is now the norm and hitting earlier in the year. But if June is the new July, then what does that make July? Possibly even more lethally hot, especially if Trump and his science-denying allies further hobble the government’s ability to fight the climate crisis. 

We can’t know how many deaths Trump’s denialism will cause, but if historical trends hold, it’s likely to be a lot. A study published last August in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds that heat-related deaths in the U.S. are getting worse. In 2023, there were 2,325 heat-related deaths, the highest in the 24 years of data the study covered. It’s also double what it was in 2020. 

The good-ish news is that data from the Pew Research Center shows Americans who face extreme weather largely attribute it to climate change. Fifty percent or more of those who have suffered extreme weather, like floods, droughts, and severe heat, in the past 12 months say climate change contributed “a lot” to what they suffered through.

At least people seem aware of what’s making things so bad. Now if only they’d vote for people who want to change it ...

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/7/13/2332524/-JD-Vance-wants-more-babies-Americans-want-help-raising-them?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/7/13/2332919/-Trump-s-mass-deportation-fantasy-is-collapsing?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=

President Donald Trump promised the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history. But halfway through his first year back in office, he’s not even matching the numbers under former President Barack Obama, let alone fulfilling his own pledge.

New figures obtained by NBC News show that while Immigration and Customs Enforcement is arresting immigrants at the fastest pace in at least five years, deportations are lagging significantly. 

In June, ICE detained around 30,000 people—the highest monthly total since data began being released in late 2020. However, deportations that month barely exceeded 18,000. May showed a similar trend: 24,000 arrests but only about 15,000 deportations.

It’s becoming a hallmark of Trump’s second term: performative crackdowns, legal overreach, and a deportation bottleneck that stalls the scheme—even with him having the full power of federal agencies.

Since February, Trump’s administration has averaged 14,700 deportations per month. That’s less than half of the former Obama administration’s 2013 average—36,000 per month—and only slightly above Biden’s early 2024 pace of around 12,660 per month (including border removals handled by U.S. Customs and Border Protection).

Trump has long campaigned on cruelty, promising to deport 1 million people in his first year, even as public support for immigration has grown recently. Now, even his base is noticing the disconnect: Arrests are up, rhetoric is loud, and results are minimal.

The data supports what immigration advocates have long said: Trump’s goals were unrealistic. There simply aren’t enough eligible people to deport quickly enough to reach that number legally. And when legal barriers arise, Trump seems eager to bypass due process to maintain appearances.

To speed up removals, the administration has started fast-tracking cases—stripping asylum protections, revoking visas, breaking promises to undocumented farmworkers, and pushing immigrants into expedited removal without court hearings. But even these heavy-handed tactics haven’t closed the gap.

Legal safeguards are slowing things down—thankfully and for good reason. Immigration attorneys told NBC that many detainees are still waiting on asylum decisions or have court orders preventing deportation. These delays are part of the process. But Trump’s team views them as obstacles.

That impatience has already led to serious mistakes. ICE has wrongfully deported at least four immigrants recently, including Kilmar Abrego Garcia and Jordin Alexander Melgar-Salmeron, who were later ordered to be returned by judges.

Meanwhile, ICE detention centers are overwhelmed. NBC reports that more than 60,000 people are being detained, far exceeding the 41,500 beds funded by Congress. Overcrowding, poor hygiene, and medical neglect are reportedly widespread, even if Department of Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin dismissed those claims as “categorically false.”

She also claimed ICE is working “diligently” to expand detention capacity.

That expansion may happen soon. Congress recently passed Trump’s vicious budget law, which allocates $45 billion to immigration enforcement and potentially tripling ICE’s detention capacity. Critics argue it won’t improve outcomes—just worsen dysfunction.

But as Trump’s team doubles down on dehumanizing rhetoric, they’re now stuck with a problem of their own making: trying to justify the threat they’ve spent years exaggerating.

After all, if the crisis were truly as severe as Trump and his allies claim, he wouldn’t be struggling to deliver on his biggest campaign promise. Instead, we’re watching his signature policy stumble against legal limits, logistical failures, and cold hard reality.

Trump isn’t just falling short and losing support. He’s also revealing the emptiness of his immigration agenda. The cruelty is the point. The follow-through has never really mattered.

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2025/7/13/2332919/-Trump-s-mass-deportation-fantasy-is-collapsing?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=